By Jay Bemis | Advertising Systems Inc.
As lawyers for Google and the Department of Justice argue over recent antitrust rulings that Google runs an ad-tech monopoly, some online experts are weighing in about what the decisions might mean for the future of search marketing.
“The decision tree is endless here,” said one analyst, Evelyn Mitchell-Wolf, during a recent “Behind the Numbers” podcast sponsored by eMarketer. She discussed possible remedies that might arise from the cases and how they could reshape the future of digital advertising.
A Forced Sell-off?
Thus far, federal judges have ruled that Google does operate illegal monopolies in two areas of the online advertising market: Ad exchanges (where publishers sell ad space through supply-side platforms) and ad servers (which are used by publishers to manage ad inventory).
Publishers have been locked into Google’s ecosystem because of the connection between these properties, Mitchell-Wolf said.
“The DOJ has recommended a forced divestiture of Google’s sell-side ad tech assets at a minimum,” Mitchell-Wolf noted. That means Google would be required to sell off DoubleClick for Publishers (DFP) and AdX, which are part of Google Ad Manager, she said.
Sharing Auction Data a Possibility
“Behavioral remedies” also are being considered to break up the connection between the ad-exchange and ad-server sides that seemingly keep advertisers within the Google ecosystem, such as making Google’s ads available on other exchanges beyond AdX or giving ad tech players access to Google’s auction data.
“With more information about why certain bids win in an auction, publishers would be able to optimize their monetization strategies more efficiently, and other ad tech players might be able to fine-tune their algorithms to better compete so Google’s sheer size isn’t as much of an advantage,” Mitchell-Wolf said.
Other Big-Tech Cases Could Affect Outcomes
The recent Google rulings come at a time when there’s increased antitrust scrutiny of other major tech companies as well. The Federal Trade Commission is looking to break up Meta’s business by forcing it to separate from Instagram and WhatsApp, while Amazon and Apple face their own antitrust allegations.
The timing of those FTC actions is particularly significant as Google is in the remedy trial for its search-case monopoly findings. “There’s a good chance that the remedies in both of these cases will be intertwined,” Mitchell-Wolf noted.
Over the coming weeks, both sides will present evidence and are expected to call a host of witnesses — including major tech industry players.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Gabriel Weinberg, CEO of search engine competitor DuckDuckGo, may be called to testify, as could senior VPs of Yahoo, Apple, Microsoft, ChatGPT and Google, court documents indicate.
Mitchell-Wolf said that while Google and Meta may remain the two largest players in digital advertising, any sell-offs would represent multibillion-dollar opportunities for competitors to seize market share, potentially creating a less centralized ad ecosystem that wouldn’t leave Google as such a dominant force in search marketing.
“If Google and Meta lose these cases and the appeals, the ad landscape could be unrecognizable five years from now,” Mitchell-Wolf predicted during the recent eMarketer podcast.
