By Jay Bemis | Advertising Systems Inc.
When the Chinese New Year of 2026 arrives in February, we will be entering the Year of the Horse — having survived what has been 2025’s Year of the Snake.
But for the experts at eMarketer, 2025, by our Gregorian calendar, was what they’re dubbing the Year of Uncertainty. And during 2026, alas, we can expect more of the same.
“Uncertainty has been the defining feature of 2025, and for good reason,” wrote Zak Stambor, an eMarketer senior analyst, this week.
“President Donald Trump’s stop-and-start tariffs have been a centerpiece of his economic agenda, and their shifting nature has made it difficult for retailers to plan and for consumers to adapt.”
Also contributing to uncertainty in 2025?
“The administration’s mass deportation campaign has hit companies that rely heavily on Hispanic spending, as roughly 1 in 5 (21% of) Hispanic consumers report having felt unsafe in their local market due to their ethnicity, per The Asian American Foundation,” eMarketer notes. “That unease has prompted many to pull back and move more of their spending online.
“At the same time, several employers are cutting staff, expecting AI-driven productivity gains to reduce their need for human workers.
“And with the cost of essentials — from health insurance to food — continuing to climb, consumers are being forced to rethink how they spend.”
How’s It Looking for 2026, the Year of the Horse?
“Few of the factors that have made planning difficult for companies and consumers are likely to be resolved in the near term,” eMarketer projects.
“Even if the Supreme Court rules that Trump lacks emergency authority to impose certain tariffs, the administration has pledged to use other levers — such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 — to keep duties in place.”
As for the other uncertainty factors?
“The AI boom will likely accelerate, prompting more employers to try to do more with less, especially if the economy weakens,” eMarketer says.
“And the cost pressures draining consumers’ wallets — housing, energy, transportation — show little sign of easing.”
The experts at eMarketer offer this parting take:
“Uncertainty is here to stay. To stay afloat, retailers must stay nimble: fine-tune pricing, manage inventory with precision, and find fresh ways to keep shoppers engaged.”
