By Jay Bemis | Advertising Systems Inc.
Whether you’re a traditionalist who’s hitting up the brick-and-mortar chains for Black Friday, a loyalist heading to locally owned shops for Small Business Saturday, or pajama-clad and pounding on a laptop for Cyber Monday, you’re about to converge toward one common goal: Spending a trillion-plus dollars during the holiday shopping season.
Forbes, citing a Deloitte forecast, estimates that holiday retail sales will grow between 2.9% and 3.4% this year for a total of $1.61 trillion to $1.62 trillion in spending, or a little slower than last year. During the 2024 holiday shopping season, retail sales grew 4.2% and totaled $1.57 trillion.
“Our forecast anticipates that e-commerce sales will stay strong as consumers keep leveraging online deals to stretch their spending power,” Deloitte’s Natalie Martini told Forbes. “Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”
Deloitte, a global professional services firm, is one of what is known as the “Big Four” accounting firms, alongside Ernst & Young, KPMG and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC).
A recent PwC survey also indicated shoppers might be a bit more thrifty this Christmas season than last. That study showed that U.S. consumers plan to spend 5% less on seasonal spending this year when compared to 2024, or the biggest drop in five years.
“More broadly, 84% expect to cut back over the next six months, citing rising prices, new tariffs and the higher cost of living,” PwC said.
Among generations, Gen Z (born between 1997 and 2012) is the generation who’ll be cutting back the most this year, according to PwC.
“Faced with a tough job market and limited savings, Gen Zers expect to spend 23% less this holiday season,” the PwC survey says. “That means retailers could be fighting harder for a smaller pool of Gen Z’s discretionary dollars this season.”
Millennials (born between 1981 and 1996) expect to spend about the same amount as they did last year, while Baby Boomers plan to spend 5% more, PwC says.
Shoppers Keep Warming to ‘Shop Local’ Trend
Last year, consumers spent an estimated $22 billion at independent retailers and restaurants on Small Business Saturday, according to American Express, which created the commemorative day 16 years ago.
This year, on Small Business Saturday, Nov. 29, that growing enthusiasm for local retail is an opportunity for small businesses to attract new customers and connect with the community, which are two business priorities highlighted in this year’s Forbes Research Small Business Survey.
In 2024, a solid majority of small business owners surveyed by Forbes Research recognized that customers prefer to support businesses “that act with greater purpose and serve their communities.” This year’s recently conducted survey shows that the portion of respondents who agreed with that statement shot up 10 percentage points to 81%.
Also trending higher in the Forbes survey? That would be the percentage of owners who believe that “small businesses cannot thrive without providing personalized customer experiences.” Eighty-one percent of respondents agreed with that statement this year, compared with 65% who agreed with it in 2024.
“To combat the scaled efficiency of corporate marketing and deep discounts on display during the holiday shopping season,” Forbes concludes, “leaning into personalization could help small businesses differentiate themselves and attract more shoppers to Main Street — instead of the mall or Amazon.”
